The main points
Reform is a high probability event: Although the power system is still functioning normally, the old and new contradictions are intertwined. Under the current demand situation and the acceleration of domestic top-level reform, the internal and external conditions for reform are already in place.
Reforms may have a profound impact on power investment, power utility operations, and new energy development: electricity prices are the main economic lever for coordinating the three sectors of the industry. The next stage of reform will definitely require reorganizing the electricity price system, which will affect power investment, public utility operations, and new energy. Energy development has a profound impact.
Incremental reforms are more likely: Since there is no universal model, incremental reforms based on national conditions are more likely. Reforms may start from the links of electricity sales, power generation marketization, and trading.
Prosperity in the user-side market: Under the market-oriented environment of electricity sales access and supply, innovation around diversified users will greatly enrich the user-side market and generate new prosperity.
Direct power purchase may have effects in some areas, and the differentiation on the power generation side will gradually increase: direct power purchase may have an effect first in power/energy surplus areas. Although there are currently no large-scale promotion conditions, it is expected to promote real competition in the power generation market in the future. And increase differentiation.
Don’t worry about industry investment, but the focus may change: electricity demand and prices will continue to grow, and the investment attributes of the power industry have their own particularities. It is expected that the industry regulatory model will not undergo major changes. Therefore, industry investment still has support, but the focus is Continue to change.
The degree of socialization will increase, and the transformation of the manufacturing industry will accelerate: the degree of socialization of the industry may gradually increase, and a more open service market will appear; large-scale manufacturing will accelerate the transition to integration, overseas, and services.
Business models for emerging energy services and operations may emerge: With the marketization of supply and user-side access, emerging energy service models that combine technologies or methods such as energy storage and demand management may emerge, which are expected to significantly improve the efficiency of the entire industry and change The existing industrial structure.
The reform of the electric power system will be parallel to the reform of state-owned enterprises, and a wave of securitization may occur: the reform of the industry’s system and the reform of major enterprises may be promoted in a coordinated manner, and a larger-scale securitization process may occur.
Energy Operation and Service Market
1) Private enterprises that are familiar with the electrical industry, have sufficient comprehensive competitiveness, and have channel relationships are expected to be the first to benefit from electricity sales, access to new distribution networks, and subsequent diversified innovations. It is recommended to buy Chint Electric, TBEA, and Changyuan Group. It is recommended to pay attention to Sifang shares.
2) The degree of socialization of the industry may gradually increase, and a market-oriented service market is expected to gradually emerge. It is expected that private enterprises with industrial support in the power industry are expected to benefit. It is recommended to focus on Golden Card, Siyuan Electric, and Zhongheng Electric.
3) In the field of clean energy, it is recommended to buy shares in Goldwind, Dongfang Energy and Longi; it is recommended to pay attention to Linyang Electronics.
Electrical equipment state-owned enterprise
For state-owned enterprises with good industrial reserves and great potential for profit and operation, if the incentive problem can be solved through reforms, they may release their vitality in the future; in addition, some enterprises may have asset securitization. Such as Xu Ji Electric, Guodian NARI, China Xidian, Pinggao Electric, Huaguang Co., Ltd. and so on.
(The content comes from the China Report Hall)