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Home >> Message >>Industry Information >> Polaris Power News Network: my country’s electricity consumption in the whole society is expected to grow to about 14 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2050
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Polaris Power News Network: my country’s electricity consumption in the whole society is expected to grow to about 14 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2050

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Polaris Power News Network Report

The Central Economic Work Conference made clear arrangements for the carbon peak and carbon neutrality work in 2021, and emphasized the need to accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure, promote coal consumption to peak as soon as possible, vigorously develop new energy, and continue to fight pollution Tackling tough battles to achieve the synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon. On September 22, my country announced its vision of striving to achieve the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. At the United Nations "2020 Climate Ambition Summit" on December 12, China further proposed to 2030 In 2010, the carbon dioxide emissions of GDP will be reduced by more than 65% compared to 2005, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach the goal of about 25%. It provides Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions for jointly addressing climate and environmental challenges, which fully demonstrates As a major country. The goal and vision of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality put forward higher requirements for the low-carbon transformation of energy and power. Facing 2060, my country's energy and power will present a new medium and long-term development path under the new situation.


Accelerated evolution of energy structure

In terms of total energy demand, terminal energy demand is expected to peak around 2025, and primary energy demand will peak during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. The peak terminal energy demand is expected to be controlled at around 3.7 billion tons of standard coal, reaching 3.4 billion tons, 2.8 billion tons and 2.4 billion tons of standard coal in 2035, 2050 and 2060 respectively. The peak value of primary energy demand is expected to be controlled at around 5.7 billion tons of standard coal, reaching 5.5 billion tons, 5.1 billion tons and 4.6 billion tons of standard coal in 2035, 2050 and 2060 respectively; among them, the peak demand for fossil energy is about 4.3 billion tons. Around coal.


In terms of energy efficiency, the level of energy efficiency continues to improve. The energy consumption per unit of GDP is expected to reach the world's advanced level after 2040, and the per capita energy demand will reach its peak around 4 tons of standard coal around 2030. The upgrading of energy structure and the release of energy-saving potential will promote the continuous improvement of energy utilization efficiency, and the per capita primary energy demand will maintain a low growth rate. It will drop to 3.6 tons of standard coal in 2050, which is far lower than the level of the United States and South Korea in the same period, and slightly higher than that of Japan and France and Germany. It will further decrease to 3.3 tons of standard coal in 2060.


In terms of the final energy sector, the demand pattern of various sectors has accelerated, and the construction and transportation sectors have successively become the main driving forces for the growth of end-use energy. my country's energy demand growth structure is gradually evolving towards a balanced evolution. The energy consumption of industry, construction, and transportation will account for 43%, 32% and 23% in 2035, respectively, and 34%, 36% and 29% in 2060. Among them, energy consumption in the industrial sector is at a high level and is about to enter a period of rapid decline; energy consumption in the construction sector will continue to grow slowly before 2040, becoming the main driving force for the growth of end energy demand; energy consumption in the transportation sector will grow rapidly before 2035 , Is an important engine for the growth of terminal energy demand.


In terms of the type and structure of terminal energy, the level of electrification continues to increase. The proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption is expected to reach about 60% and 70% in 2050 and 2060 respectively. The electrification rate of the industrial sector is steadily increasing, the construction sector has the highest electrification rate, and the transportation sector The electrification rate has increased the fastest. In the terminal energy structure, electric energy has gradually become the most important energy consumption product. After 2025, electric power will replace coal in the dominant position of terminal energy consumption. Electricity's share of final energy consumption is expected to reach approximately 32%, 45%, 60%, and 70% in 2025, 2035, 2050, and 2060, respectively. In terms of sectors, the electrification rate of the industrial sector has steadily increased. The electrification rate in 2060 will increase from 26% in 2020 to 69% in 2060; the construction sector has the highest level of electrification and the greatest potential for improvement, and the electrification level will increase to 80% in 2060; transportation The sector’s electrification level has increased the fastest, from 3% in 2020 to 53% in 2060.


In terms of the primary energy structure, non-fossil energy will account for more than 50% of my country's energy supply by around 2040, and it is expected that non-fossil energy will account for approximately 80% of primary energy in 2060. The transition to low-carbon primary energy is obvious, and the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption is expected to reach approximately 22%, 40%, 69%, and 81% in 2025, 2035, 2050, and 2060, respectively. Around 2035, the total scale of non-fossil energy surpasses that of coal. Wind energy and solar energy have developed rapidly and have become the main non-fossil energy varieties after 2030. In 2050, they will account for 26% and 17% of total primary energy demand, respectively, and will further increase to 31% and 21% in 2060.


In terms of the degree of external dependence on energy, my country’s dependence on foreign oil and gas first rises and then declines. In the medium and long term, the issue of energy security gradually improves. my country’s overall dependence on external energy will remain below 20% for a long time. my country's oil and natural gas dependence on foreign countries will hover at a high level in the near to mid-term. The dependence on foreign countries will drop significantly after 2025 and 2035, reaching 53% and 31% in 2050, and falling to 42% and 21% in 2060.



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